Deindustrialization: A New Tool is Needed to Anticipate and Prevent It!
Deindustrialization has hit France with singular intensity. Between 1995 and 2024, the share of industry in the national GDP collapsed from 17% to 10%, marking a more brutal decline than in other major developed economies. The slight rebound in 2024 did not offset this drastic fall. In 30 years, we have lost nearly two million industrial jobs! This prolonged decline has weakened the country: it has made the economy fragile, deepened territorial inequalities, weakened social cohesion, and exposed France to increasingly dangerous strategic dependencies.
This decline has been accompanied by an erosion of know-how, a loss of control over value chains, and a rise in services at the expense of production. The industrial fabric, a pillar of prosperity and economic power, has been sacrificed on the altar of poorly managed globalization, an unthought strategic aspect regarding power, and a progressive productive disarmament.
Faced with this reality, traditional indicators are no longer sufficient to measure the extent of the phenomenon. And while the barometer set up by the Directorate General for Enterprises shows signs of recovery, it is a tool that observes an evolution; it does not allow for anticipation.
The race between deindustrialization and reindustrialization can only be won if companies on the verge of closing or relocating are identified upstream and if stakeholders (economic actors, states, local authorities, trade unions, etc.) are not only informed but decide to act. In the event of a hemorrhage, it is not enough to administer an IV drip; the blood loss must first be stopped!
This is why our center has decided to build a tool to anticipate deindustrialization risks.
This unique and unprecedented tool is intended to become a reference for public services, trade unions, industrialists, economists, journalists, and political decision-makers, by providing them with concrete data and a multi-criteria analysis framework on deindustrialization risks in France. It must also be an early warning system for economic ecosystems, experts, and concerned citizens!
This tool provides an unprecedented diagnosis of industrial vulnerabilities
For this first edition, this deindustrialization risk index is based on 9 key criteria for evaluating the fragilities of large industrial companies in France:
- Strategic positioning
- Technological vulnerability
- Policy and regulation
- Financial situation
- Taxation and public funding
- Shareholding structure and governance
- Employment and skills
- Territorial embeddedness
- Image and reputation
The analysis focuses on an initial panel of 10 emblematic companies, representative of current industrial challenges: Alstom, Arkema, ArcelorMittal, Danone, Renault, Michelin, Sanofi, Seb, Schneider Electric, and Valeo.
Next step: expansion of the analysis in autumn 2025
Our objective is to expand the panel in September and create an Observatory of Deindustrialization Risks, whose mission will be to continue these analyses.
This index was designed by Arnaud de Morgny, our deputy director. He also participated in and led the case studies, which required the work of a team of 10 people.
